| At the true 7-1 odds, you would enjoy 125 $800 victories (the $700 you win each time, plus your returned $100 investment), so you would get back exactly the $100,000 you had invested (125x800=100,000). At the proffered 6-1 odds, you would "enjoy" the same 125 victories, but you would be paid only $700 each for them. 700 times 125 equals $87,500, meaning you would be a $12,500 loser. Put another way, by accepting 6-1 instead of 7-1, you're fighting a 12.5% house advantage, which is more than twice as bad as roulette, Caribbean Stud, or most of the other games you probably quit—or at least learned to play only for low stakes—long ago. But parlays aren't always bad, despite that huge house edge, if you get to play one that isn't independent. For example, suppose your bookie allowed you to parlay three "over-under" bets on the same game: first half over-under, second-half over-under, and full game over-under. Although these are three separate bets, a parlay here is very, very different from a parlay of three independent events like Michigan over Notre Dame, Ohio State over Purdue and Florida over Georgia. Do you see why? Suppose your three picks are: First half total: over 21 Second half total: over 22 Full game total: over 43 If you win the first two parts of your bet—if both the first and the second halves go over—you MUST win the third part, because the game total will also go over. So here you're getting paid 6-1 on what is a 3-1 proposition (getting both the first and second half bets correct). That's a MONSTROUS overlay, if you can find a bookie dumb enough to offer it. The only reason you won't get wealthy betting this one is that your bookie will go out of business before you can retire. Speaking of bookies going out of business… you do need to take that into consideration when you find a monster edge. Probably not so much with your local bookie—if he's been around for 20 years, he'll probably survive one bad offering—and almost certainly not with a major casino sports book, because if anyone has the deep pockets to survive such a mistake, it's a real casino. If you favor one of the new Internet sports books with your gambling action, though, you must recognize that there is some risk—tiny in some cases, significant in others—that you may not get paid off. If an Internet sports book runs a promotion where they allow such parlays, and the "wise guys" crush them, the chance exists that the casino may close down. I'm not in the business of recommending one Internet casino over another; a website like www.theprescription.com can help. I just want you to recognize that anytime you make a bet where a chance exists that you might not get paid if you win, you need to take that into account and adjust your expected return. This factor can turn a great bet into a good bet, a good bet into a bad one, or a bad bet into a horrible one. Stay aware, and take advantage of all the current information you can. End of lecture. Let's get back to gaming opportunities. These kinds of great parlay situations used to come up fairly often during the Super Bowl, because of all the exotic proposition bets offered. Although usually not offered throughout the season, for the Super Bowl (and to a lesser extent other playoff games) you can make bets on the first player to score, which quarterback will throw more touchdown passes, how many rushing touchdowns, and so on. If you boarded an airplane in an undeveloped country, and the pilot proudly announced he had just now learned to fly via a 5-minute lesson, you would scramble off that plane faster than Homer Simpson could grab a jelly doughnut. Certain kinds of skills, airline piloting among them, are best acquired through years of study and practice. Fortunately for the occasional Las Vegas or Atlantic City visitor, casino gambling doesn't have to fall into that category. If your casino goals are modest–you don't need to break the bank, but just want to indulge a little without looking like a rube, and are willing, in the name of entertainment, to lose a little as long as you can escape with your shirt intact–you can give yourself a good chance to reach those goals in the next five minutes. If you read and follow the five Do's and the five Don'ts below, your post-Las Vegas exclamation will sound much more like (if you'll forgive just one more Simpsons metaphor) Homer's "Woo-hoo!" rather than his "Doooh!" |
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